IPL 2026 Playoff chances in Percentage: Qualification scenarios for GT, SRH, CSK, RR, PBKS, KKR and DC

The IPL playoff race has reached its crescendo. Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) have already secured their spot, but the drama is far from over. Every remaining clash carries weight, shaping not just who qualifies but who finishes in the coveted top two.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru (18 points, Qualified)

Remaining fixture: vs SRH, May 22 at Hyderabad

• RCB are assured of a playoff berth. A win over SRH would take them to 20 points, guaranteeing a top‑two finish.

• Even before their final game, they could lock in a top‑two spot if CSK beat SRH (May 18) and GT (May 21).

• The only slim risk of not finishing in the top two is if SRH and GT both beat CSK and edge past RCB on net run rate (NRR).

Gujarat Titans (16 points | Playoff chances 99.6%)

Remaining fixture: vs CSK, May 21 at Ahmedabad

• GT qualify if either SRH beat CSK or LSG defeat RR.

• A top‑two finish is possible if they beat CSK and SRH drop one of their two games.

• If GT beat CSK and SRH win both, it creates a three‑way tie at 18 points (GT, RCB, SRH), with NRR deciding positions.

• GT could miss out entirely (on net run rate) if CSK beat both SRH and GT, RR win both games, and SRH beat RCB. It will lead to a four-way tie between GT, SRH, RR and CSK, and GT will miss out in that case.

Sunrisers Hyderabad (14 points | Playoff chances 84%)

Remaining fixtures: vs CSK (May 18, Chennai), vs RCB (May 22, Hyderabad)

• A win over CSK guarantees qualification.

• A split (loss to CSK, win vs RCB) could still see them through if GT beat CSK or RR lose one of their games.

• NRR comes into play if CSK beat both SRH and GT, SRH beat RCB, while RR win both fixtures.

• There’s a slim mathematical chance of qualifying with 14 points, but it requires a cascade of favourable results.

Punjab Kings (13 points | Playoff chances 34%)

Remaining fixture: vs LSG, May 23 at Lucknow

• PBKS must beat LSG to reach 15 points, then hope:
  • Only one of CSK, SRH, and RR reach 16.
  • KKR drop at least one of their two games, or PBKS edge them on NRR in a 15‑point tie.

• They could sneak in with 13 points if: LSG and MI beat RR, SRH and GT beat CSK, KKR beat DC but lose to MI, and PBKS stay ahead of KKR on NRR.

Chennai Super Kings (12 points | Playoff chances 35%)

Remaining fixtures: vs SRH (May 18, Chennai), vs GT (May 21, Ahmedabad)

• Winning both games takes them to 16 points, but they’d still need RCB to beat SRH or RR to drop one game.

• Qualification at 14 points is possible but requires multiple results to align.

• If CSK lose to SRH but beat GT, CSK qualify without depending on net run rate, only if RR lose both, LSG beat PBKS, and KKR win against Delhi Capitals but lose to Mumbai Indians.

Rajasthan Royals (12 points | Playoff chances 35%)

Remaining fixtures: vs LSG (May 19, Jaipur), vs MI (May 24, Mumbai)

• One win (14 points) keeps them alive, but they’d still depend on other outcomes.

• At 16 points, they qualify if only one of CSK or SRH also reaches 16.

• RR’s fate hinges on NRR if CSK win both and SRH beat RCB.

Kolkata Knight Riders (11 points | Playoff chances 11%)

Remaining fixtures: vs MI (May 20, Kolkata), vs DC (May 24, Kolkata)

KKR can qualify with 13 points if they beat DC and:

• SRH and GT beat CSK, LSG and MI beat RR, PBKS lose to LSG, and KKR edge PBKS on NRR.

• Winning both games (15 points) secures qualification if only one of RR, SRH, and CSK reaches 16.

• Either LSG defeat PBKS, or if PBKS beat LSG, then KKR trump the Shreyas Iyer-led side on NRR.

Delhi Capitals (12 points | Playoff chances 2%)

Remaining fixture: vs KKR, May 24 in Kolkata

• Must beat KKR to reach 14 points. They qualify if:

• LSG beat PBKS, LSG and MI beat RR, and SRH and GT beat CSK.

The playoff race is a tangled web of permutations, with RCB sitting comfortably while every other contender balances on the edge of NRR and results elsewhere.