U19 World Cup 2026: Qualification scenarios for semi-finals

The Under-19 World Cup qualification race is heating up. While five teams have been eliminated in the Super Six stage, as many as six are vying for the remaining three semi-final spots, with only Australia having secured a berth thus far. England, India and Afghanistan are in firm contention from their respective groups.

Group 1

Australia have already secured the top spot in Group 1 and will take on Group 2 topper in the semi-finals. There is a three-way battle for the vacant spot between Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and West Indies, all of whom have four points.

Of these, West Indies’ qualification seems the unlikeliest, given they have played all their matches and finished with the lowest NRR among the three. West Indies will need Sri Lanka and Afghanistan to lose by a margin large enough to dent their NRR and push it below West Indies' -0.421.

If Sri Lanka and Afghanistan both win, the latter will most likely finish second thanks to their highly superior NRR. For Sri Lanka to qualify, they must beat South Africa and pray that Ireland defeat Afghanistan.

Group 2

England have been in red-hot form in the tournament so far, topping the group table with wins against Pakistan (37 runs), Zimbabwe (eight wickets) and Scotland (252 runs) before thrashing Bangladesh (7 wickets) in the Super Six round. They are the top contenders to end in the top two in their Super Six group.

England’s final game is against New Zealand, who have not been on top of their game in this tournament, losing by significant margins against India (7 wickets and 141 balls to spare) and Pakistan (eight wickets and 197 balls to spare). If England defeat New Zealand on January 30, they will qualify for the semi-finals with eight points.

England’s victory will make the final game of the Super Sixes between India and Pakistan a knockout, as only one of the two will make the cut for the last four in that situation. With six points and a net run rate of 3.337, India are in a much stronger position compared to Pakistan, who have four points and a net run rate of 1.484.

For Pakistan to upend India’s NRR, they will have to secure a victory by a considerable margin. For instance, if they score 300 batting first, then they will have to win by at least 85 runs or more to better India’s NRR; if they bowl first and keep India down to 200, then they must chase the target inside 32 overs.

The possibility of both India and Pakistan qualifying from the group is not entirely ruled out. But for that, New Zealand will have to defeat England, which seems an unlikely proposition given the kind of form both teams have been in. In case New Zealand topples the high-flying English team, and Pakistan beat India, then as many as three teams will have six points, with NRR coming into play to decide the top two.